Main Contents
Now is the Time to Be Remembered
jane @ January 5, 2009
Support the international effort “to control and eliminate the current virulent form of avian influenza which is causing severe long-term social and economic impacts in affected areas.”
The current “fatality rate among those infected is increasing, currently standing at 60 percent”.
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTTOPAVIFLU/Resources/Bamako_Needs_Framework_30-Nov-2006.doc
This is the clarion call. The world citizenry is at risk.
You, your parents, your neighbors, and worse – your children and their children are the targets. Two generations.
http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm (http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm)
Can we prevent a high pathogenic avian influenza pandemic? Can we buy time until a safe and effective vaccine is ready? Can we be prepared if a pandemic occurs?
It is up to you.
International corporations, countries with large cash reserves, and large foundations - this is your chance to commit to the stability of the next two generations. The world calls on you to participate in this most important endeavor – the security of our children and grandchildren.
The problem is not continents away, it is in our backyard. This global community is one. By helping our fellow citizens in a distant country we are helping ourselves. None of us will be able to insulate ourselves from a pandemic that circles the globe. HPAI will not be selective choosing among rich and poor. Status or privilege will not protect against a small, highly contagious pathogen.
Along with prevention efforts, preparation is essential to increase the time needed for vaccine production. Even if the current strain is not known, vaccines based on older strains may produce a cross immunity.
“The merit in vaccinating now with a current H5N1 virus isolate, despite the likelihood of its significant variation from a future pandemic strain, is under debate. The current vaccine strain may induce sufficient cross-reactive antibody to curtail, although not effectively prevent, infection by the pandemic strain.4 (http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/185_10_201106/boo10929_fm.html#0_i1091909#0_i1091909)
Future vaccines may depend on strategies that also target the internal conserved proteins of the virus and elicit heterosubtypic immunity (ie, common to all influenza A viruses). Such broadly cross-reactive responses, not induced by current inactivated virus preparations, can be mediated by CD8+ cytotoxic T cells that kill virus-infected cells and secrete antiviral cytokines. These vaccines cannot prevent infection, but lessen the severity and duration of disease and reduce viral shedding. DNA vaccines encoding genes for internal proteins no doubt work principally by this method. Other strategies involving delivery of conserved CD8+ T cell epitopes16 (http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/185_10_201106/boo10929_fm.html#0_i1091936#0_i1091936) and the use of adjuvants that may boost cross-reactive T cell responsesare the subject of NHMRC-funded studies. The advantage of boosting heterosubtypic immunity is that vaccines can be delivered without prior knowledge of the emerging strain.
Much has been achieved in a short time, but if a pandemic strikes soon, much more effort will be required. We can legitimately expect that a vaccine of at least partial and life-saving efficacy will be widely available no earlier than 3 months into the pandemic. Clearly, other measures will be required in the interim, such as social distancing and antiviral prophylaxis.”
http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/185_10_201106/boo10929_fm.html (http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/185_10_201106/boo10929_fm.html)
Will we be remembered as the generation that watched a threat grow until it unleashed its fury against our young? Or will we fund prevention, preparation, and vaccine efforts for the benefit of all of mankind. Will we answer the call of the less fortunate among us? Will we be able to pass the baton of the future with a clear conscience?
"Our difficulties and dangers will not be removed by closing our eyes to them."
Winston Churchhill
****As preparations for the Bamako Conference are being finalized, the World Bank will continue to work with development finance partners to collect and disseminate data on the resources available for the international effort to control AHI at source and to prepare for a possible human pandemic. Donors are invited to submit pledge forms (on a confidential basis) before the pledging meeting. Donors may send advance pledge forms to Pauline Zwaans at pzwaans@worldbank.org.
| World's Richest Two Percent Own Half Global Wealth: UN | ||
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| “The world’s richest two percent of adults own more than half of global household wealth, while half the world's population own only one percent, a UN report published on Tuesday showed. ‘The study finds wealth to be more unequally distributed than income across countries,’ Anthony Shorrocks, Director of the Helsinki-based World Institute for Development Economics Research of the United Nations University (UNU-WIDER) that published the report, said at a press conference. The report, entitled ‘The World Distribution of Household Wealth’, found that assets of $2,200 or more placed a household in the top half of world wealth distribution in 2000. To be among the most affluent 10 percent of adults required $61,000 in assets, while more than $500,000 was needed to belong to the richest one percent. This group of the most well off was made up of 37 million people. The study said it was the first of its kind to include major components of household wealth, including financial assets and debts, land, buildings and other tangible property, and to cover all the world’s countries. …” [Agence “… The report … found that the average wealth across the planet is $26,000 per person. The number takes into account differences in costs of living. But the real story is the tremendous inequality in the distribution of wealth, both within and between countries. The richest 10 percent of adults … own 85 percent of the world's total wealth. The richest one percent … own 40 percent of all the wealth in the world. …” [The “… Shorrocks said that wealth was important to provide people with a source of income, insurance against unemployment or ill-health and as collateral for starting a business. ‘For the poor there is a ‘double whammy’: not only do poor countries have disproportionately lower wealth but it is also more important for them,’ he said. … As countries grow richer, their population changes how it holds wealth, according to the report. In developing countries, property, particularly land and farm assets, are important, while cash savings tend to dominate in middle-income countries. Only in some advanced countries with developed financial sectors is there a strong appetite for holding equities and other more sophisticated financial assets. Debt is also low in poor countries because financial institutions do not exist to allow people to borrow on the same scale as in the developed world.” [The Financial Times ( “… ‘Income inequality has been rising for the past 20-25 years and we think that is true for inequality in the distribution of wealth,’ said James Davies, a professor of economics at the “… The authors of the new study acknowledged that their results were a little rough. Wealth is difficult to measure accurately, and many countries do not even try. For many countries, the authors had to impute data, making several assumptions. Income inequality shows few signs of abating in most countries. Still, there is evidence that the global gap in wealth may close somewhat over coming years. Paradoxically, the reason is the fast growth of | ||
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| Bird Flu Experts Gather In Mali To Raise Billions To Fight Deadly Virus | ||
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| “Bird flu experts from across the globe gather Wednesday in the West African nation of Nearly a third of the money will have to be channeled into Sub-Saharan Africa, where poor health and veterinary infrastructure has left the continent already facing wars and poverty ill-equipped to deal with the crisis. … ‘The total financing gap for the next two to three years to address avian and human influenza-related programs ... has been estimated at between $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion,’ the World Bank said in a report prepared for the fourth international conference on avian influenza in Mali's capital, Bamako. ‘The largest increases in needs are in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa, which reflects both the spread of the disease to those regions and the relatively poor conditions of veterinary and public health services in most of the countries of these regions,’ the report said, adding about $466 million would be needed in Africa. Speaking on the eve of the conference, Madibo Traore, an ex-Mali minister who how heads the 53-member African Union's bureau of animal resources, said the continent wide body would try to unify strategies to combat the disease across often porous borders. Traore said $700 million would be needed in “It is the first international forum on bird flu to be organized in “International aid to help Africa fight off bird flu should give a shot in the arm to public health and veterinary services and help the continent tackle its many other health scourges, the UN Bird Flu Coordinator, David Nabarro said ahead of the global summit on bird flu in Mali. … Nabarro acknowledged there were few resources available for healthcare in | ||
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,date:2006-12-06~menuPK:34461~pagePK:34392~piPK:64256810~theSite PK:4607,00.html
Support the international effort “to control and eliminate the current virulent form of avian influenza which is causing severe long-term social and economic impacts in affected areas.”
The current “fatality rate among those infected is increasing, currently standing at 60 percent”.
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTTOPAVIFLU/Resources/Bamako_Needs_Framework_30-Nov-2006.doc
This is the clarion call. The world citizenry is at risk.
You, your parents, your neighbors, and worse – your children and their children are the targets. Two generations.
It is up to you.
International corporations, countries with large cash reserves, and large foundations - this is your chance to commit to the stability of the next two generations. The world calls on you to participate in this most important endeavor – the security of our children and grandchildren.
The problem is not continents away, it is in our backyard. This global community is one. By helping our fellow citizens in a distant country we are helping ourselves. None of us will be able to insulate ourselves from a pandemic that circles the globe. HPAI will not be selective choosing among rich and poor. Status or privilege will not protect against a small, highly contagious pathogen.
(http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/185_10_201106/boo10929_fm.html#0_i1091909#0_i1091909)
....Will we be remembered as the generation that watched a threat grow until it unleashed its fury against our young? Or will we fund prevention, preparation, and vaccine efforts for the benefit of all of mankind. Will we answer the call of the less fortunate among us? Will we be able to pass the baton of the future with a clear conscience?
"Our difficulties and dangers will not be removed by closing our eyes to them."
Winston Churchhill
****As preparations for the Bamako Conference are being finalized, the World Bank will continue to work with development finance partners to collect and disseminate data on the resources available for the international effort to control AHI at source and to prepare for a possible human pandemic. Donors are invited to submit pledge forms (on a confidential basis) before the pledging meeting. Donors may send advance pledge forms to Pauline Zwaans at pzwaans@worldbank.org.
Thank you F1, hope citizens, corporations, banks and governments hears and feel and dare to care.
At a press conference in the Malian capital, to announce the results of the donor summit, the UN’s Senior Influenza Coordinator, Dr. David Nabarro, said he was very pleased with the final outcome.
“This is a clear sign that the international community remains firmly focused on the fight against avian influenza, with a special emphasis on
Nabarro said that more donor financing would certainly be available over the coming months as donors move into new budget cycles in the coming financial year.
According to the World Bank, considerable additional money is also available from the multilateral development banks, which together with the news grants announced today in
“We have more than US$600 million available from the development banks in the form of zero-interest credits and other loans to fight avian flu in developing countries,” said John McIntire, Special Representative of the World Bank to the Fourth International Conference on Avian Influenza in Mali. “Poor people rely increasingly on poultry, ducks, and other birds to earn income, and as a major source of protein in their diets, so stamping out avian flu is very much a key development challenge.”
The leading donors at the Mali summit were the European Commission and the European Union (US$ 131); the United States (US$100 million); Canada (US$ 92.5 million); and Japan (US$ 67 million).
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For more on the UN and World Bank’s work in avian flu, click here: http://influenza.un.org (http://influenza.un.org/) and http://worldbank.org/avianflu (http://worldbank.org/avianflu)
Thank you EU, US, Canada, and Japan for leading the World.
If we assume a 60% fatality rate and a 50% infection rate modelled on this age demographic, and project forward using current birthrates, the global population profile will look very different to current projections.
The generations that would be hardest hit are the ones that are expected to fund the global economy in the decades ahead, and their offspirng.
Nowhere have I seen an economic analysis of the impacts of such a demographic shift, only assessments of the immediate economic cost in the years following a pandemic. If this consideration is factored in, we are saying that our child bearing population could be reduced by 40%ish in the next two generations. This has massive economic implications.
If the economists and others need data to galvanise the world into action, I think that such projected financial outputs might just do the trick. They are the ones that will fund welfare payments of the elderly (already problems with severe shortfalls projected, hence proposed increases in retirement age) and the socially disadvantaged.
What this says is that no country will be able to afford a social welfare system, international welfare, nor state pensions, anywhere. Hard data is needed - anyone have access to current projections?
That will be true in the near term for sure if we have a pandemic with an attack of 30-50% and a CFR of 50%+. Then it will depend on whether or not the remaining world population can produce enough excess to support sustained population growth into the next two centuries to build up to the population levels we see today.
Also, in projecting populations it is important to remember that in our species it is not always an ever increasing number.
My point is that it is concievable that we will have less people in the world in 200 years than we do now.
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